Project Challenge
The proposed Trans Mountain Expansion required a credible capacity basis linking pipeline deliveries, terminal storage and marine exports. Tank capacity and berth loading rates alone could not establish achievable throughput. Vessels also needed to navigate Burrard Inlet alongside existing traffic, subject to tidal, current, visibility and passing restrictions.
The study assessed how terminal storage configurations and marine operating conditions affected capacity, vessel delays and operating flexibility. Its purpose was to provide evidence for engineering decisions and discussions with the port authority, accounting for constraints within both the terminal and the shared waterway.
Modelling Approach
A discrete-event simulation connected pipeline supply, storage inventories, vessel and berth operations, and marine movements through Burrard Inlet. Pipeline and inventory modelling represented delivery profiles, multiple crude grades, storage tanks and operating strategies.
The marine scope included Aframax vessel arrivals, anchorage, loading and berth occupancy. Channel conditions covered tides, currents, passing rules, visibility and daylight windows. Third-party vessel traffic, historical conditions and scenario variation were also considered.
By modelling these activities together, the analysis could assess how storage availability, berth access and navigation restrictions interacted. Proposed operating conditions were evaluated through their effects on vessel delays and overall system performance, rather than through separate calculations of tank, berth and channel capacity.
Decisions Supported
The simulation tested nighttime vessel movements, tidal and current restrictions, alternative vessel distributions and storage configurations. These scenarios supported comparisons of marine access conditions, tank and inventory strategies, and berth operations.
Storage decisions considered the relationship between pipeline supply and inventories of different crude grades. Marine and berth decisions considered vessel calls, loading, anchorage and the availability of navigation windows.
The analysis quantified the effects of alternative conditions on vessel delay and system capacity. This provided a common analytical basis for terminal planning and discussions with the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, helping connect proposed operating restrictions with their implications for achievable throughput.
Outcomes and Applications
Burrard Inlet was a potential constraint on terminal capacity because export vessels shared a restricted waterway with other users. The integrated model allowed pipeline supply, grade inventories, berth availability, weather and marine movements to be evaluated as a connected system.
The study supported assessment of storage strategies and marine operating conditions by showing how they affected delays, capacity and operating flexibility. Its findings informed engineering decisions and port-authority discussions without relying solely on nominal infrastructure capacities.
The broader application is that terminal capacity depends on more than tankage and loading rates. Vessel scheduling, shared-waterway restrictions and operating variability need to be evaluated together when establishing achievable throughput and assessing storage and marine infrastructure options.
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